Chapter 8 of 9

Conclusion: The Gateway to Feasibility

Rigorous risk management as the path to feasible business models.

Playbook Chapters
What You'll Learn By the end of this chapter, you'll know how to assess whether you've validated or invalidated your idea, understand what comes next in the solution stage, and be ready to transition to Playbook 03.

The End of the Beginning

Congratulations. You've armed yourself with the tools to navigate the most dangerous phase of a startup's life.

If you've followed the process in this playbook rigorously, you now understand that "validation" isn't a checkbox—it's a disciplined practice of risk reduction. You've learned to design experiments, talk to customers without lying to yourself, and synthesize evidence into decisions.

The question now is: what did you find?

If You've Validated

You have evidence of a problem worth solving and customers willing to pay. The riskiest assumptions have been tested and passed.

Your status: Ready to move to the Solution Stage. Time to build an MVP.

If You've Invalidated

You've saved yourself months or years of wasted effort. This is a victory, not a failure.

Your status: Take your learnings and pivot to a new hypothesis. The Lean Vault has everything you need.

The Validation Scorecard

Before you proceed, run through this final checklist:

Validation Milestone Evidence Required Your Status
Problem Validated 5+ interviews confirm the pain; people quantify the cost or
Customer Identified Clear segment with consistent characteristics or
Willingness to Pay Pricing research shows acceptable range; pre-orders or LOIs or
Demand Signal Smoke test showed conversion above threshold or
Assumptions Tested Leap of Faith assumptions moved out of "Death Zone" or
The Minimum Bar

You don't need perfect confidence to proceed. You need enough evidence to justify the next phase of investment. If you've reduced your biggest risks and have positive signals on demand, you're ready.

What Comes Next

Validating the problem is only the first step. Next, you must validate the solution. The Solution Stage answers different questions:

Feasibility

Can we actually build this? Do we have the technical skills? What's the minimum viable architecture?

Usability

Does our solution actually solve the problem? Can users figure out how to use it without hand-holding?

Distribution

Can we reach customers at scale? What channels will work? What's our go-to-market strategy?

Your Journey So Far

Playbook 01

Idea Clarity

Complete

Playbook 02

Customer Discovery

Complete

Playbook 03

Solution Design & MVP

Up Next

Key Takeaways from This Playbook

Before you move on, remember these core principles:

  1. Evidence over opinion. The only valid currency is Skin in the Game—time, money, or reputation.
  2. Revealed preference beats stated preference. What people do matters more than what they say.
  3. Test the riskiest assumptions first. Your Leap of Faith could kill the business if wrong.
  4. Pre-define your kill criteria. Set the threshold before you run the experiment.
  5. Document everything. A failed experiment is a success if it generates validated learning.
  6. AI accelerates, not replaces. Use AI for practice and analysis—but talk to real humans.
The Most Common Mistake

Founders who "sort of" validated rush into building. They had a few positive interviews but no hard commitment. They ran a smoke test but moved the goalposts when it failed. Don't be that founder. Be rigorous. The time you spend validating now saves months of wasted building later.

Ready to Proceed?

If you've validated your problem and have evidence of demand, you're ready for Playbook 03: Solution Design & MVP Architecture. This guide will teach you:

  • How to translate validated insights into product requirements
  • Minimum Viable Product architecture principles
  • Build vs. buy vs. fake it decisions
  • Technical feasibility validation
  • Preparing for your first paying customers
Save Your Progress

Create a free account to save your reading progress, bookmark chapters, and unlock Playbooks 04-08 (MVP, Launch, Growth & Funding).

Create Free Account

You've Completed Playbook 02: Customer Discovery

You've learned the frameworks for validation. Now apply them to run your first experiments.

Start Your Validation Journey
Works Cited & Recommended Reading
Lean Startup & Innovation Accounting
Assumption Mapping & Testing
  • 7. Invest in Winning Ideas with Assumption Mapping. Miro
  • 10. Testing Business Ideas: Book Summary. Strategyzer
  • 11. Innovation Tools – The Assumption Mapper. Nico Eggert
  • 14. Business Testing: Is your Hypothesis Really Validated? Strategyzer
  • 16. An Introduction to Assumptions Mapping. Mural
  • 17. Assumption Mapping Techniques. Medium
Customer Interviews & The Mom Test
  • 8. Book Summary: The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick. Medium
  • 22. The Mom Test for Better Customer Interviews. Looppanel
  • 23. The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick [Actionable Summary]. Durmonski.com
  • 9. How to Evaluate Customer Validation in Early Stages. Golden Egg Check
Jobs-to-Be-Done Framework
  • 24. Jobs to be Done 101: Your Interviewing Style Primer. Dscout
  • 25. How To Get Results From Jobs-to-be-Done Interviews. Jobs-to-be-Done
  • 26. A Script to Kickstart JTBD Interviews. JTBD.info
Product-Market Fit & Surveys
  • 33. Sean Ellis Product Market Fit Survey Template. Zonka Feedback
  • 34. How to Use the Product/Market Fit Survey. Lean B2B
  • 35. Product Market-Fit Questions: Tips and Examples. Qualaroo
  • 36. Product/Market Fit Survey by Sean Ellis. PMF Survey
Pricing Validation Methods
Smoke Tests & Fake Door Testing
  • 43. Smoke Tests in Market Research - Complete Guide. Horizon
  • 45. Fake Door Testing - How it Works, Benefits & Risks. Chameleon.io
  • 52. High Hurdle Product Experiment. Learning Loop
  • 53. Fake Door Testing: Measuring User Interest. UXtweak
Conversion Benchmarks & Metrics
  • 46. Landing Page Statistics 2025: 97+ Stats. Marketing LTB
  • 47. Understanding Landing Page Conversion Rates 2025. Nudge
  • 49. What Is A Good Waitlist Conversion Rate? ScaleMath
  • 54. Average Ad Click Through Rates (CTRs). Smart Insights
Decision Making & Kill Criteria
  • 57. From Test Results to Business Decisions. M Accelerator
  • 58. Kill Criteria for Product Managers. Medium
  • 59. When to Kill Your Venture - Session Recap. Bundl

This playbook synthesizes research from Lean Startup methodology, Jobs-to-Be-Done theory, behavioral economics, and validation frameworks. Some book links may be affiliate links.