Free Comprehensive Playbook

Customer Discovery & Assumption Testing

The comprehensive guide to transitioning from uncertainty to evidence-based confidence. Stop guessing—start validating.

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10 Chapters
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90 Min Read
Customer Discovery & Assumption Testing

Why Customer Discovery Matters

Building a product without validation is gambling, not business. The #1 reason startups fail is building something nobody wants.

This playbook provides a rigorous framework for de-risking your startup through customer discovery and assumption testing. You'll learn how to:

  • Map your assumptions - Identify every belief underlying your business model
  • Talk to customers without bias - Master interview techniques that reveal truth
  • Design experiments - Test hypotheses with fake doors, smoke tests, and more
  • Make data-driven decisions - Know when to pivot, persevere, or kill the idea

The Build Trap

Most founders rush to build before validating. They spend months coding a product based on assumptions, then discover customers don't care. This playbook teaches you to test assumptions BEFORE writing code.

What You'll Learn

Master the art of validation through structured customer discovery.

0

Summary

The imperative of evidence-based innovation and avoiding the "Build Trap".

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1

Ch 1: Imperative

Navigating the Uncertainty Gap and the cost of false positives.

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2

Ch 2: Foundations

Assumption Mapping, Risk Architecture, and the mechanics of risk ranking.

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3

Ch 3: Discovery

The phenomenology of customer pain, unbiased interviewing, and JTBD.

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4

Ch 4: Verification

Statistical rigor, surveys, and pricing psychology methodologies.

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5

Ch 5: Smoke Tests

Measuring revealed preferences through landing pages and "fake doors".

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6

Ch 6: Synthesis

The PivotBuddy Protocol, hierarchy of evidence, and the Pivot Compass.

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7

Ch 7: AI Role

Augmented discovery with PivotBuddy and the Lean Vault.

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8

Conclusion

Rigorous risk management as the path to feasible business models.

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9

Tools

AI-powered tools and recommended resources for Customer Discovery.

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The Core Components

Five foundational elements that power effective customer discovery

Assumption Mapping

Identify and prioritize the riskiest assumptions in your business model before testing them.

Customer Interviews

Master "The Mom Test" and learn to ask questions that reveal truth, not validation.

Experiment Design

Create fake doors, smoke tests, and concierge MVPs to validate demand before building.

Evidence Synthesis

Transform qualitative and quantitative data into actionable insights and decisions.

Pivot or Persevere

Make structured decisions based on evidence, not hope or sunk costs.

Key Concepts You'll Master

Practical frameworks and techniques you can implement immediately

Fake Door Tests

Validate demand by marketing a product before building it.

The Mom Test

Ask questions that even your mom can't lie to you about.

Concierge MVP

Deliver your service manually before automating with technology.

Evidence Threshold

Define upfront how much evidence you need to validate or invalidate.

Ready to Validate Your Assumptions?

LeanPivot.ai provides AI-powered tools for assumption mapping, interview script generation, and experiment design. Stop guessing—start validating.

Start Reading the Playbook Try LeanPivot.ai Free
Works Cited & Recommended Reading
Lean Startup & Innovation Accounting
Assumption Mapping & Testing
  • 7. Invest in Winning Ideas with Assumption Mapping. Miro
  • 10. Testing Business Ideas: Book Summary. Strategyzer
  • 11. Innovation Tools – The Assumption Mapper. Nico Eggert
  • 14. Business Testing: Is your Hypothesis Really Validated? Strategyzer
  • 16. An Introduction to Assumptions Mapping. Mural
  • 17. Assumption Mapping Techniques. Medium
Customer Interviews & The Mom Test
  • 8. Book Summary: The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick. Medium
  • 22. The Mom Test for Better Customer Interviews. Looppanel
  • 23. The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick [Actionable Summary]. Durmonski.com
  • 9. How to Evaluate Customer Validation in Early Stages. Golden Egg Check
Jobs-to-Be-Done Framework
  • 24. Jobs to be Done 101: Your Interviewing Style Primer. Dscout
  • 25. How To Get Results From Jobs-to-be-Done Interviews. Jobs-to-be-Done
  • 26. A Script to Kickstart JTBD Interviews. JTBD.info
Product-Market Fit & Surveys
  • 33. Sean Ellis Product Market Fit Survey Template. Zonka Feedback
  • 34. How to Use the Product/Market Fit Survey. Lean B2B
  • 35. Product Market-Fit Questions: Tips and Examples. Qualaroo
  • 36. Product/Market Fit Survey by Sean Ellis. PMF Survey
Pricing Validation Methods
Smoke Tests & Fake Door Testing
  • 43. Smoke Tests in Market Research - Complete Guide. Horizon
  • 45. Fake Door Testing - How it Works, Benefits & Risks. Chameleon.io
  • 52. High Hurdle Product Experiment. Learning Loop
  • 53. Fake Door Testing: Measuring User Interest. UXtweak
Conversion Benchmarks & Metrics
  • 46. Landing Page Statistics 2025: 97+ Stats. Marketing LTB
  • 47. Understanding Landing Page Conversion Rates 2025. Nudge
  • 49. What Is A Good Waitlist Conversion Rate? ScaleMath
  • 54. Average Ad Click Through Rates (CTRs). Smart Insights
Decision Making & Kill Criteria
  • 57. From Test Results to Business Decisions. M Accelerator
  • 58. Kill Criteria for Product Managers. Medium
  • 59. When to Kill Your Venture - Session Recap. Bundl

This playbook synthesizes research from Lean Startup methodology, Jobs-to-Be-Done theory, behavioral economics, and validation frameworks. Some book links may be affiliate links.