Chapter 2 of 8

Chapter 2: Capture and Market Signal Analysis

Aggregating raw inputs and filtering them through market momentum.

Playbook Chapters
What You'll Learn By the end of this chapter, you'll know how to get ideas out of your head and onto paper, recognize which ideas have market potential, and avoid building in a dying market.

Step 1: Get It Out of Your Head

Ideas bounce around in your brain all day. Some are gold. Most are garbage. And you can't tell which is which while they're still in your head.

The first step is simple: write everything down. Don't judge. Don't filter. Just capture.

Why You Need to Dump Your Brain

Your brain has two modes that don't play well together:

  • Generator mode: Coming up with ideas, making connections, seeing possibilities.
  • Editor mode: Judging, critiquing, filtering out the "bad" ideas.

When you try to do both at once, the editor kills the generator. You think "that's a dumb idea" before you've even finished the thought. Valuable ideas die before they're born.

The Rule: Capture First, Judge Later

Set a timer for 20 minutes. Write down every startup idea you've ever had, every problem you've noticed, every "why doesn't someone fix this?" moment. Don't stop to evaluate. Just dump. You can sort through the mess later.

Tag Your Ideas (So You Can Find Patterns)

Once you've captured your ideas, tag them. Here's a simple system:

#personal-pain

Problems you personally experience. These are powerful because you understand the pain deeply.

Watch out: Don't assume everyone shares your specific frustration. Your pain might be unique.

#observed-inefficiency

Problems you've seen others struggle with. Great for B2B—businesses pay to remove friction.

Watch out: Make sure the people struggling would actually pay to fix it.

#emerging-tech

"What if we used AI/blockchain/VR to do X?" These start with technology, not problems.

Watch out: You're looking for a nail to hit with your shiny hammer. Dangerous territory.

Is Anyone Swimming in This Pool?

You've got a list of ideas. Now you need to figure out which ones have market potential. This is where most founders go wrong—they either skip this step entirely or spend months doing "market research" that doesn't tell them anything useful.

What you actually need to know:

  1. Is this market growing or shrinking? (Momentum)
  2. Are people happy with current solutions? (Sentiment)
  3. How much noise is there about this topic? (Volume)

The Four Types of Markets

Market Type What It Looks Like What To Do
The Gold Mine Lots of people complaining, market is growing, current solutions are failing. Jump in. High demand + unhappy customers = opportunity.
The Frontier Small market, but growing fast. Early days. Nobody owns it yet. Move quickly. You can define the space before it gets crowded.
The Mirage Lots of people talking about it, but they're all pretty happy with what exists. Avoid. Saturated market, loyal customers. Hard to crack.
The Wasteland Nobody's talking about it, and the few who are seem sad. Market is shrinking. Run away. This industry is dying. Don't be on a sinking ship.
How To Spot These Signals

Look at Reddit threads, Twitter/X conversations, product reviews, and industry news. Are people complaining about existing solutions? Are new startups getting funded in this space? Are incumbents releasing desperate updates? These are all signals of opportunity.

What You Walk Away With

By the end of this step, you should have:

  • A Brain Dump: All your ideas, out of your head and onto paper (or a doc).
  • Tagged Ideas: Each idea labeled with its source (personal pain, observed inefficiency, or tech push).
  • Market Signal Analysis: A rough sense of which ideas are in Gold Mine or Frontier markets vs. Mirages or Wastelands.
  • Your Top 3: The ideas worth taking to the next step—defining your customer.

Don't overthink this. The goal isn't perfection; it's getting your ideas organized enough to start stress-testing them. In the next chapter, we'll pick one idea and get crystal clear on who exactly you're building for.

Scan Market Trends with AI

Use our AI Insights Generator to analyze market momentum, sentiment, and identify Gold Mine opportunities.

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Works Cited & Recommended Reading
Lean Startup & Validation
  • 1. Features - Lean Startup Tools from Ideation to Investment. LeanPivot.ai
  • 2. Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation. Crown Business
  • 3. Maurya, A. (2012). Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. O'Reilly Media
  • 4. Blank, S. (2013). The Four Steps to the Epiphany. K&S Ranch
  • 5. An introduction to assumptions mapping. Mural
Jobs-to-Be-Done Framework
  • 6. Christensen, C.M. et al. (2016). Competing Against Luck: The Story of Innovation and Customer Choice. Harper Business
  • 7. Ulwick, A. (2016). Jobs to Be Done: Theory to Practice. Idea Bite Press
  • 8. Klement, A. (2018). When Coffee and Kale Compete: Become great at making products people will buy. NYC Press
  • 9. Jobs-to-be-Done: A Framework for Customer Needs. Harvard Business Review
Problem Discovery & Validation
  • 10. Torres, T. (2021). Continuous Discovery Habits. Product Talk LLC
  • 11. Fitzpatrick, R. (2013). The Mom Test: How to talk to customers. Robfitz Ltd
  • 12. What Opportunities May Lead to Someone Becoming an Entrepreneur. MBA Disrupted
Blue Ocean & Differentiation
  • 13. Kim, W.C. & Mauborgne, R. (2015). Blue Ocean Strategy, Expanded Edition. Harvard Business Review Press
  • 14. The Four Actions Framework (ERRC Grid). Blue Ocean Strategy
  • 15. Strategy Canvas: A Visual Tool for Differentiation. Blue Ocean Strategy
Market Analysis & Signals
  • 16. How to Validate Your Startup Idea. Y Combinator
  • 17. Market Sizing for Startups: TAM, SAM, SOM. Forbes
  • 18. Maholic, J. (2019). IT Strategy: Issues and Practices. Scribd
Cognitive Biases & Decision Making
  • 19. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Lean Canvas & Business Modeling
  • 20. The Lean Canvas Explained. Lean Stack
  • 21. Osterwalder, A. & Pigneur, Y. (2010). Business Model Generation. John Wiley & Sons

This playbook synthesizes research from lean startup methodology, Jobs-to-Be-Done theory, and behavioral economics. Some book links may be affiliate links.